OGT Owl Group Trading by Dr. Ken Long
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Essays

Long-form writing by Dr. Ken Long, organized by the four stages of the Trading Loop — Plan, Prepare, Execute, Assess.

Stage 01

Plan (11)

Build the written plan you can trust when pressure hits — strategies, regimes, goals, the system on paper.

Plan for disciplined market work

Every trading plan begins with a blunt question: what do you do when pressure hits and you have no map? Without one, you improvise. You size up at the moment you should freeze, chase a move that has a

Trading Strategy: How To Build One That Fits

Most traders fail not because they lack intelligence or market access but because they never build a trading strategy that fits who they are. You can study every chart pattern, memorize dozens of tech

Rule Based Trading System Fundamentals And Build Process

Every rule based trading system starts with the same premise: if you define the conditions clearly enough, the decision makes itself when those conditions appear. You remove the guesswork, trade the p

Understanding Different Types of Trading Styles

Trading is not one-size-fits-all. It's a spectrum of strategies, each with unique time commitments, psychological demands, and skill sets. Choosing the right style depends on your temperament, lifesty

Trading Goals by Trader Type

Successful traders don't just jump into the market — they define clear, measurable goals aligned with their trading type, available time, risk tolerance, and personal priorities. Below are tailored go

Market Regimes: How To Identify And Trade Them

Every market has a personality that shifts over time. One quarter rewards breakout buyers. The next punishes them and pays patient sellers instead. The difference between consistent profitabil

Market Regime Classification for Smarter Trading Decisions

Most traders have watched a strategy that printed money for weeks suddenly start bleeding capital. Nothing changed in your rules, your indicators, or your discipline. What changed was the market itsel

Mean Reversion Trading Strategy Explained Clearly

Every asset price stretches. It drifts above or below its own average, pulled by fear, greed, or a headline that will be forgotten by next week. A mean reversion trading strategy is built on t

Momentum Strategy Backtest: A Practical Evaluation Guide

A momentum strategy backtest is the single most honest conversation you will ever have with your trading idea. Before you risk real capital on the belief that trending assets keep trending, you owe yo

Nasdaq 100 Momentum Strategy: Rules, Risk, And Testing

Trading the Nasdaq 100 with a momentum strategy means you are betting that stocks already moving in one direction will keep going. The concept is simple. The execution is not. You are dealing with a t

S&P 500 Trend Following Backtest: What Matters

Most traders who run an S&P 500 trend following backtest make the same mistake. They test one moving average crossover on twenty years of data, see a nice equity curve, and assume they have found

Stage 02

Prepare (4)

Finish the work before the screen lights up — sizing, risk, marked levels, the honest physical and mental check.

Stage 03

Execute (7)

Apply the plan under live pressure — manage the position by rule, protect open profit on the way out.

Stage 04

Assess (7)

Study your own marks with the rigor you study the market — journal, R-multiples, expectancy, CAR25.

Assess for trading review discipline

Every trade leaves a mark. Some marks show up plainly in your account balance, and others hide quietly in your habits, your hesitation, and your timing. The trader who keeps growing and the trader who

Trading Journal Guide For Serious Traders

Most traders lose money for the same reason most dieters regain weight: they never build a feedback loop between what they do and what they measure. Your trading journal is that feedback loop,

Review Trading Performance With A Practical Framework

Most traders check their profit and loss number at the end of the week and call it a review. That is not a review. That is scorekeeping, and it tells you almost nothing about what you are actually doi

R Multiple Trading: Measure Risk And Performance

Most traders obsess over dollars won or dollars lost. That metric lies to you.

Win Rate: How To Calculate And Use It

Your win rate tells you one thing clearly: out of the opportunities you took, how many did you actually win? Whether you trade financial markets, close sales deals, or compete in ranked games, this si

Profit Factor: How To Measure Trading Edge

Your profit factor tells you one thing clearly: whether your trading is making more money than it loses. Divide your total gross profits by your total gross losses, and the resulting number either con

CAR25 Trading: Risk-Normalized System Evaluation

Most traders pick a system based on its compound annual rate of return and call it a day. That single number tells you how fast the account grew, but it says nothing about the pain you endured to get

Cross-cutting

Backtest discipline (8)

Cross-cutting — every stage relies on honest historical evidence. Bias detection, slippage, overfitting, benchmarks.

Backtesting Trading Strategy Fundamentals And Process

Every professional trader reaches a point where a strategy either earns its place in the book or gets cut. The difference between those two outcomes is almost never about the idea itself.

Backtest Failure: Why Strategies Break Live

Your backtest looked bulletproof. The equity curve climbed at a steep angle, the Sharpe ratio was impressive, and every metric screamed "deploy this now." Then you went live, and the strategy bled mon

Lookahead Bias Trading: How To Spot And Prevent It

Every backtest you have ever run carries a hidden assumption: that the strategy only knew what it could have known at the time. Lookahead bias in trading occurs when your model, script, or dec

Overfitting In Machine Learning: Causes And Prevention

Every machine learning model you build faces a fundamental tension: learn the training data well enough to be useful, but not so well that it memorizes quirks and noise instead of real patterns.

Survivorship Bias Backtesting: Building More Reliable Tests

Your backtest looks profitable. The equity curve rises steadily. The Sharpe ratio sits well above 1.0. Everything points toward a strategy worth trading live. Then you deploy it, and the returns vanis

Random Portfolio Benchmark: How To Measure Skill Fairly

Most traders compare their returns to a single index and call it a day. The problem is that a single index carries built-in biases toward certain sectors, market caps, or weighting schemes. When you m

Slippage In Trading: Causes, Costs, And Control

Every trade you place carries an expected price. The price you actually receive can differ.

Slippage Model Backtest Essentials For Realistic Results

Every backtest tells a story, and most of them are too optimistic. The gap between simulated performance and live results almost always traces back to one overlooked variable: how you model the cost o

Cross-cutting

Community & coaching (1)

How the practice scales from solo work to coached cohorts.